Pakatan leads N. Sembilan forecast, but BN’s trust advantage keeps election race open, says Vodus survey

KUALA LUMPUR, July 23 — Pakatan Harapan (PH) is ahead of Barisan Nasional (BN) in voter support and projected seats in the Negeri Sembilan state election, but the contest remains competitive with neither coalition on course for a clear majority, according to a Vodus Research forecast.

The research firm’s latest forecast projects PH leading in 17 of the 36 state seats, followed by BN with 15 and Perikatan Nasional (PN) with two, while two BN-PH contests remain too close to call.

The forecast means neither PH nor BN has reached the 19-seat threshold needed to form the state government, leaving the outcome dependent on the two undecided contests.

Vodus Research said PH currently leads the statewide popular vote with 42 per cent support, ahead of BN at 35 per cent and PN at seven per cent, while 14 per cent of voters remain undecided or declined to reveal their preference.

However, the research firm said BN’s support was distributed more effectively across constituencies, allowing the coalition to remain competitive despite trailing PH in overall voter share under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

“The statewide popular vote identifies the broad political mood, but the government will be decided by how efficiently that support converts into 19 seats,” Vodus said in its analysis.

Vodus said PH’s current lead in eight of the 10 closely contested seats contributed to its projected tally of 17 seats, while the other two contests remained unresolved.

Vodus said Bersatu’s presence in seven of the 10 close contests could divide part of the Malay vote that might otherwise favour BN or PN, although it stressed that this remained a sensitivity assumption rather than a guaranteed voting pattern.

The research firm also found BN and PH drawing support from different voter groups, with BN leading among Bumiputera voters at 41 per cent, compared with PH at 27 per cent and PN at 25 per cent.

Among Chinese voters, PH held a strong lead at 59 per cent, followed by BN at 20 per cent and PN at nine per cent.

Vodus said the findings suggested BN’s stronger Bumiputera support provided it with a durable base in many parts of the state, while PH’s advantage among Chinese voters contributed to its stronger statewide vote share.

Despite PH’s lead in voter preference, BN held a significant advantage in voter trust, recording a net trust score of 45 per cent compared with PH’s 19 per cent and PN’s five per cent.

The research firm said this indicated BN had a stronger advantage when voters assessed confidence in each party’s ability to manage Negeri Sembilan.

On leadership ratings, Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun recorded a favourability rating of 31.7 per cent, compared with 58.1 per cent recorded by Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi in an earlier Vodus election survey.

Vodus said the difference highlighted a challenge for PH in translating voter support into greater confidence in its leadership and ability to govern.

Cost of living was identified as the top issue influencing voting decisions, with 55 per cent of respondents listing it among their top three concerns, followed by jobs and wages at 34 per cent, housing affordability at 26 per cent, and corruption and governance at 24 per cent.

The forecast also found that 30 per cent of voters remained open to changing their choice, despite 70 per cent describing their current preference as either completely or fairly certain.

On turnout, 71 per cent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote, although only 51 per cent placed themselves in the strongest “very likely” category.

Vodus said travel or being outside Negeri Sembilan was the most common reason among potential non-voters, followed by inconvenience, work commitments and living outside the voting area.

The findings were based on a survey of 437 registered Negeri Sembilan voters conducted from July 9 to 21 using Vodus’ OMTOS online survey method, with the sample adjusted according to the state’s ethnic, age and gender composition based on Department of Statistics Malaysia data.

Vodus said the popular vote estimates used its effective likely-voter model, while seat projections took into account factors including candidate availability and demographic patterns.