Survey: BN-Perikatan poised to dominate in Melaka as Pakatan-Bersatu grassroots synergy sputters

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 13 — Backchannel political cooperation has not generated grassroots synergy for Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu in the Melaka state election, leaving an openly coordinated Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) pact on course to claim up to 24 seats, according to think tank Ilham Centre.

In a pre-polling study released on the eve of the vote, the research outfit found that the federal Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA) between the Madani administration and Bersatu showed “little evidence of effectiveness” in forging voter-level alignment.

The firm noted that the arrangements conducted without open public messaging have alienated fence-sitters and left party loyalists adhering to traditional rivalries rather than pooling their votes.

The disconnect contrasts sharply with the formalised coordination achieved by BN and PN, which has synchronized grassroots campaign machinery and produced high vote transferability.

According to Ilham’s findings, 91 per cent of PN supporters expressed readiness to vote for BN candidates, while 78 per cent of BN voters were willing to back PN contenders. Under their shared electoral slate, BN is contesting 23 of Melaka’s 28 seats, with PN fielding candidates in the remaining five.

Ilham cautioned that in a first-past-the-post electoral system, vote splitting between parties sharing common political space provides an overwhelming structural advantage to unified opponents.

“PH and Bersatu must demonstrate greater political resolve in formalising an electoral alliance,” the firm said, warning that without formal agreements on candidate slates, seat quotas, common narratives, and integrated machinery, the partnership remains trapped as an “elite-level understanding”.

Based on stated voter preferences, Ilham projects the BN-PN alliance to lead in 24 constituencies, building upon the decisive majority BN secured in the 2021 state election when it claimed 21 seats.

Conversely, PH appears safe in only two urban strongholds, Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir, while its defensive battles in Ayer Keroh and Kesidang remain too close to call.

The report characterised PH’s support as “stable but stagnant”, noting that its appeal remains locked within non-Malay and urban precincts with negligible traction among Malay, rural, and undecided voters.

The survey gathered responses from 805 registered voters across all 28 constituencies between Nov 1 and 12 through stratified random sampling, supported by five focus group discussions and 22 in-depth interviews.

Carrying a statewide margin of error of 3.45 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level, the survey measures declared voting intent ahead of polling day tomorrow, Nov 14, following early voting on Nov 10.