The rise of AfD: How far-right gains in Berlin are rattling Germany’s establishment

BERLIN, Sept 17 — Two German state elections Sunday could deal a double blow to embattled Chancellor Friedrich Merz, two weeks after his party suffered a stunning defeat at the hands of the far-right AfD.

Tight races for power – each with their own unique electoral dynamics – are expected in the city-state of Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The Alternative for Germany is expected to make strong gains in both, a fortnight after it trounced Merz’s centre-right CDU by a margin of almost 44 to 17 per cent in the ex-communist eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

The AfD triumph badly rattled Merz and fuelled speculation that the 70-year-old leader, who took power in May last year, may not sit out the end of his four-year term as leader of Europe’s top economy.

Amid speculation about a potential change at the top, eight CDU state premiers closed ranks Wednesday and declared jointly that Germany needs “stability now more than ever” rather than “discussions about personnel”.

Merz has vowed to reboot Germany’s flagging economy, rearm the country to deter a hostile Russia and contain irregular immigration to soothe voters’ fears and lure them away from the AfD.

Instead, the AfD now leads nationwide polls, Merz’s personal approval ratings hover around 10 per cent, and his coalition with the centre-left SPD is increasingly torn by infighting.

“In Merz’s case, we are now observing the possibility of a tipping point – an implosion rather than a slow erosion of authority,” said Oliver Lembcke, a political scientist at Ruhr University Bochum.

“When election defeats, poor personal ratings and internal party doubts reinforce one another, political authority can collapse very quickly.”

Two close election battles

In one election Sunday, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz’s party is an onlooker to the main battle between the SPD of popular state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD.

While the AfD was polling at 37 per cent against the SPD’s 35 in the latest INSA survey, Merz’s CDU, at just seven per cent, may drop dangerously close to the five-per cent hurdle needed to stay in the state parliament.

A CDU crash below that line would be a historic first and heap enormous pressure on Merz.

If the CDU “were indeed to fail to clear the five-percent threshold, I consider it quite likely that Mr Merz would be pressured by his party to step down,” said Ursula Muench of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing.

“Barring such a drastic turning point, I do not foresee this happening for the time being.”

In Berlin, the ruling CDU is running a neck-and-neck race against the far-left Die Linke, which is popular with many young people and promises drastic steps to solve a dire housing crisis.

A CDU defeat in the capital would be another black eye for Merz.

The AfD is meanwhile expected also to do well in Berlin, although it is set to remain shut out of power in both states because all other main parties have agreed on a “firewall” of non-cooperation with it.

‘Dissatisfaction running high’ 

Whoever wins either poll, the AfD is sure to again channel voter discontent with the mainstream parties.

“I do hope they vote for the AfD here, I can tell you, because the CDU have been in power for years and they haven’t got their act together,” said Berlin retiree Manuela Schmidt, 63.

She pointed to poverty-stricken pensioners collecting bottles off the streets to collect the deposits.

“They’ve worked for 45 years, get a pension of 500-something (euros per month), and go out at night to collect bottles, only to be driven away by foreigners in the end… and that simply can’t go on,” Schmidt told AFP.

Merz – bracing for a tough Sunday evening – has scheduled a CDU executive committee meeting then to quickly discuss the election results and the way forward.

He also cleared his calendar for the coming week by scrapping plans to travel to the UN General Assembly, sending his foreign minister to New York instead.

“Dissatisfaction is evidently running high” in the CDU camp, said Muench, adding, however, that cooler heads might eventually prevail to avoid boosting the AfD under co-leader Alice Weidel.

“It must surely be clear to level-headed CDU politicians that replacing the CDU chairman and chancellor would not serve their own interests,” she said. “It would just fuel the AfD’s pipe dreams of a ‘Chancellor Alice Weidel’.” — AFP