Incoming: Super El Niño could bring heat and haze from November, says MetMalaysia

KUALA LUMPUR, July 7 — Malaysia could face hotter weather, lower rainfall and a greater risk of transboundary haze from late this year as MetMalaysia forecasts a Super El Niño to develop in November and last until January 2027.

The forecast is based on climate data monitored by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through its Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), MetMalaysia deputy director-general (Operations) Ambun Dindang said, according to Berita RTM.

Ambun said El Niño conditions were already present, but Super El Niño status was only expected to begin around November.

“The phenomenon develops in the central Pacific Ocean, but its effects can be felt around the world, including Malaysia. 

“However, the impact on the country is expected to occur slightly later than in the region where it originates,” he said.

If realised, the phenomenon could bring significantly lower rainfall and higher temperatures to Malaysia early next year.

Ambun noted that previous strong El Niño episodes had coincided with some of the country’s highest recorded temperatures, including 40.1°C in Chuping on April 9, 1998, and 39.3°C in Batu Embun in 2016.

Responding to reports that Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Brunei could face transboundary haze in the coming months, Ambun said the projections reflected the development of El Niño alongside the typically hot and dry conditions during the Southwest Monsoon.

“During this season, haze can originate from local sources or be transported across borders from neighbouring countries that are also experiencing dry conditions,” he said.

He added that monitoring by the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) had identified several hotspots in neighbouring countries that could affect regional air quality.

However, Ambun cautioned that it was still too early to predict a severe haze episode, as conditions would depend on weather patterns and prevailing winds. 

Current projections suggest any more significant haze would be more likely after the Northeast Monsoon ends, when drier conditions return next year.

MetMalaysia will continue monitoring El Niño developments and global climate data to ensure any weather changes likely to affect the country are communicated promptly to the public and relevant agencies, he added.